Miners discover blocks randomly but in addition proportionally to the miner’s hashrate. How can I greatest predict and specific this ‘probability’ per mining pool?
For instance, if F2Pool has had 10% of the full mining hashrate for the previous week, does it make sense to say that they may in all probability discover 10% of the blocks shifting ahead?
What’s one of the simplest ways to specific the notion? I would like to have the ability to say one thing like:
“F2Pool has a 10% probability to seek out the following block within the subsequent 10 minutes, and this approaches 100% after 10 blocks. Ie. F2Pool has an excellent probability to seek out no less than one block throughout the subsequent 100 minutes.”
Clearly there may be by no means a 100% probability to discover a block within the subsequent x blocks, so what is the accepted approach of giving a quantity but in addition with that undertone of “or perhaps by no means?”
Is there an API or library I can use to calculate/know these ‘probability’ values over time per mining pool?